You’d think a poll that showed your party’s candidate ahead would be greeted warmly by that party’s partisans, but that was not the case with the most recent Roanoke College poll.
Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe was just one of many Democrats who expressed incredulity that the poll (taken before last week’s convention) showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead by only 3 percentage points over former President Donald Trump in Virginia, a figure that put it within the margin of error. He felt her lead should have been bigger.
McAuliffe’s response was to trash the poll by making false statements about its methodology and track record; I addressed those in a previous column. (In his defense, I don’t think McAuliffe is intentionally stating untruths; I think he’s simply one of those people who sometimes engages his mouth before his brain is in gear.)
I’ve heard from other Democrats, though, who were surprised by the poll and found it dispiriting.
This is a good teaching moment.
There are two big reasons why the poll doesn’t show Harris leading by more: independents and rural voters.
Let’s look at independents first.
Trump leads by 12% to 16% among independents
In 2020, Joe Biden won independents. Harris is losing them. The poll (taken before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race) showed that independents in Virginia were tilting toward Trump, either 50% to 34% in a two-way race or 47% to 35% in a five-way race with Kennedy being one of the five.
Democrats are excited about Harris, more so than they were about Biden. The poll numbers bear that out. Independents, though, aren’t excited about Harris — at least not yet. I might gently suggest that the Democrats I’ve been hearing from simply don’t know enough independents. Their Democratic circles may be energized, but that energy runs out once you cross the party line. Politically, Harris needs to reach beyond her party.For those who think you can win an election simply by motivating your party’s base, the Roanoke College poll results strongly caution otherwise: 27% of those surveyed identified as independents vs. 32% who said they were Democrats and 30% who call themselves Republicans. That’s a big voter bloc in these polarized times.
The Roanoke College poll doesn’t paint a complete picture of what motivates independents, but from the questions that were asked, it’s clear that many independents are concerned about things that might push them toward Trump rather than Harris: They think the country’s headed in the wrong direction. They think he’d be tougher with Vladimir Putin; they’re not particularly concerned about Trump being a threat to democracy. They don’t like Joe Biden, but they love Glenn Youngkin and think slightly better about JD Vance than they do Tim Walz. Despite the party’s upbeat convention, Democrats have a lot of work ahead of them. Harris might be able to win Virginia with independents against her; the Democratic base might be big enough. However, if Virginia’s independents mirror those in other states (and some of the polling I’ve seen suggests they do), then she will have a tougher time nationally than Democrats would like.
There’s another reason, though, why Virginia might be “in play,” one that Democrats in the urban crescent may have difficulty comprehending: Trump has been able to increase the Republican vote in rural Virginia, even in places that are losing population. That’s not really news, but the numbers I’m about to present may come as a surprise.
Trump has increased the Republican vote even in counties that are losing population
It’s become a truism that the Democratic vote has collapsed in rural Virginia. However, that’s only true in percentage terms. In terms of raw numbers, in many places, the Democratic vote has stayed consistent, or only declined a little, but the Republican vote has increased. And it’s often increased a lot. To put this in more colorful language, Trump has been able to squeeze votes out of rural communities that no one previously believed were possible. Democrats are big on expanding the electorate. That will produce more Democratic votes in urban areas, but in rural Virginia, it’s been Trump who has done the most to expand the electorate. Whether these are new voters or just voters who haven’t been that engaged in the past is difficult to say, but the numbers are quite clear: A bigger electorate in rural Virginia has produced more votes for Trump, not Democrats.
Let’s look at some examples. We’ll start in Dinwiddie County. The county’s population barely changed in the 2020 census and actually declined a smidge — down by 0.19% — so that gives us a good place to look without the complications of big population increases or decreases.
Some Democrats see Harris as the second coming of Barack Obama; she’s certainly fired up Democrats more than Obama’s vice president, Joe Biden, did, so let’s compare Obama’s vote in Virginia in 2008 with Biden’s vote in 2020.
In 2008, John McCain carried Dinwiddie County over Obama by a vote of 6,526 to 6,246.
In 2020, Trump carried Dinwiddie over Biden by a vote of 8,695 to 6,224.
See what happened? The Democratic vote stayed almost exactly the same (down just 22, or 0.003%) while the Republican vote went up by 2,172 — an increase of 33.2%.
Before anyone says the Republican vote for Trump is skewed because Republicans weren’t excited about McCain, that’s not borne out by the data. McCain in 2008 got more votes out of Dinwiddie County than George W. Bush had in either of his two runs. Trump just managed to generate a whole lot more — in a county where the population barely changed. Because the Democratic vote stayed about as even as you can get, this was not a case of Trump winning over former Democratic voters, this was a case of him producing new voters. His 2020 totals in Dinwiddie were even higher than his 2016 totals, despite the lack of new people in the county. Democrats in Dinwiddie didn’t go away; they really suffered no losses at all, but Republicans (at least under Trump) were able to mobilize voters in an unprecedented way.
Now let’s move over to Buckingham County, always a favorite of mine because it’s home to the geographical center of Virginia at Mount Rush.
In 2008, Obama carried the county narrowly over McCain — 3,489 to 3,428. (And yes, McCain that year got more votes than Bush had).
In 2020, Biden ran almost even with Obama — he polled 3,471 votes, just 18 fewer. But Trump produced 4,544 out of Buckingham County — 1,116 more than McCain, or 32.5% more. And, oh, Buckingham’s population by then had declined slightly, by 1.88%, over the previous decade, so somehow Trump generated more votes out of a slightly smaller pool.
The farther west we go, the more the trends change. We still see the Republican vote increasing, but we also see the Democratic vote declining, not staying steady as it has in parts of Southside.
As late as 2004, Buchanan County voted Democratic, going for John Kerry over Bush by 5,275 to 4,507.
By 2008, McCain carried Buchanan County, but the margin was relatively close: McCain 4,541, Obama 4,063.
Come 2020, Buchanan wasn’t close at all: Trump 8,311, Biden 1,587.
Buchanan County has also seen the state’s sharpest population drop. The 2020 census showed its population down by 15.53% over the previous decade. However, turnout among the remaining voters in the country increased, from 8,734 in 2008 to 9,953 in 2020. Trump was the one driving that.
Now let’s look at this statewide. Here’s how the raw Democratic vote has changed in each locality from 2008 to 2020. Note: We’re not talking here about the percentage the party received; we’re talking about the actual number of votes and how much they have changed up or down. You’ll see that except for the westernmost counties, the Democratic vote hasn’t declined all that much. In some rural parts of Southside, the Democratic vote isn’t even down a full percentage point.
Now let's look at how the raw Republican vote has changed over that same time period:
You'll see that while the raw Democratic vote has increased only in a relatively few localities, the raw Republican vote has increased almost everywhere, and, in percentage terms, has increased the most in rural localities, even ones losing population.
So if Democrats in Northern Virginia (or elsewhere) are befuddled at how Trump could be competitive in the state, this is why. An outsized vote in rural Virginia is keeping him in the game. Between 2008 and 2020, the Republican vote in Fairfax County dropped by 32,593 — but Trump made that up by adding votes in one county after another across rural Virginia. It obviously wasn’t enough to enable him to win — he’d have been better off had he been more competitive in Northern Virginia — but he did replace those votes. Statewide, the Republican vote in 2020 was 13.76% higher than what it had been in 2008. That was almost entirely because of increases in rural Virginia. In Fairfax County, the total Republican vote fell 16.22%, a big hit given how populous Fairfax is (a drop of 32,953 votes). However, across rural Virginia, Trump’s raw vote was typically 30% to 40% higher than what McCain polled in 2008, even though the Democratic vote often didn’t change much, so that wasn’t a case of former Democratic voters switching to Trump, this was a case of new voters coming out. The exception is in Southwest Virginia, where Trump’s vote was even higher — he increased the Republican vote in Russell County by 70%, in Dickenson County by 73%, in Buchanan County by 83%, even though those localities were losing population.
I know some Democratic strategists scoff at the notion of making any investment in rural Virginia — too much work for too little return — but this is what happens. The numbers in rural Virginia may be small, but the margins add up. Four years ago, Biden carried Virginia Beach by 12,306 votes. Trump carried Buchanan County by 6,724 votes and Lee County by 6,876 votes. His margins in those two rural counties negated Biden's margin in Virginia Beach. Biden won because he maximized votes elsewhere, but the point is that Trump's increasing margins in rural Virginia help keep him closer in the state — and could put him in a position to carry the state if Harris underperforms elsewhere.
This also makes things difficult for Democratic congressional candidates in some districts. Earlier this week, I looked at the 5th District. Democrats entertain visions of how Tom Perriello won that district in 2008, the first year that Obama won, and hope that Gloria Witt can do the same this year with Harris on the ballot. Two problems with that: The shape of the 5th District has changed, making it more Republican. Meanwhile, the rural counties in the 5th have become more Republican. The map above shows just how much more Republican they are.
This is why I’m baffled why Republicans aren’t more supportive of early voting. Rural areas, now solidly Republican, typically have lower turnout rates than suburban localities that now vote Democratic. (In the 2021 governor’s race, only 40% of those registered in Republican-voting Buchanan County bothered to vote, while 61% in Democratic-voting Falls Church did. Glenn Youngkin won anyway, but think of how much more he could have won by if rural areas had higher turnout. Early voting is one way Republicans could change that. Republicans who want to reduce early voting or return entirely to one-day voting are actually working against their party's electoral interests.)
There are some practical questions for Republicans: How many more votes can they expect to squeeze out of rural counties? When do they hit the ceiling? And does this reliance on rural voters weaken the party in the long run by reducing their focus on swing suburban districts that might matter more when it comes to, say, electing a Republican majority in the General Assembly?
In the meantime, these numbers explain why Virginia is not as blue as Democrats think it ought to be.
What's the effect of Kennedy's withdrawal in Virginia?
I write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out every Friday afternoon. This week I'll look at the Kennedy effect in Virginia, along with other topics.
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